Index methodology
What is measured
(0–100) is computed separately for eight regions and for the world as a whole. The calculation is deterministic and run by a script over open data series; language models do not set the number. The result is an OSINT estimate, not official data.
Components and base weights
| Component | Weight |
|---|---|
| Chokepoints: straits and canals (drop in tanker traffic) | 30 |
| Shortage news (share of “fuel shortage” articles) | 15 |
| Retail prices | 15 |
| Stocks | 15 |
| Prices (crude, diesel, gasoline) | 10 |
| Diesel crack spread | 5 |
| Geopolitical risk | 5 |
| Physical premium (no free futures series yet: the component is absent and is not substituted) | 5 |
Normalisation
Each component is converted to a 0–100 score as the percentile of its current value against its history: 10 years for prices and the crack spread, 5 years for the other series. For chokepoints, the score is a linear scale of the drop in the 7-day average of tanker transits against the 365-day median (no drop = 0, a drop of 80% or more = 100); a region takes its worst chokepoint. For the Cape of Good Hope, growth in traffic reads as rerouting, that is, a signal.
Formula
coverage = Σ weights of available components
- A missing component does not redistribute weight: the gap is not filled with an estimate, it lowers coverage.
- Coverage below 50%: no value is shown (“insufficient data”, grey hatching on the map).
- A stale series (older than two update periods) drops out and coverage falls.
- The world index is an import-weighted average of regions (weights are constants in the calculation script).
Levels
0–24 calm · 25–49 tense · 50–74 crisis · 75–100 critical.
Events
Events do not affect the score. Event cards are an editorial layer: only records checked by a script and approved by the owner are published. “Confirmed” means at least two independent publishers; “reported, single source” means one source. The text “effect on the index” appears only when a change in a series supports it. Event texts are translated from the Russian originals; where an English translation is not yet available the card shows the Russian text with a note.
Chokepoints
Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Malacca, Bosporus and the Cape of Good Hope: IMF PortWatch data (number of tanker transits).