ESTIMATE · OSINT, not official data. The index is computed by a script from open series; events do not affect the score.
World news, 14 October 2026
This issue covers 6 events. The world Fuel Tension Index at the time of issue is 79 out of 100 (critical), unchanged over 24 hours, data coverage 93%. Main event: US Treasury issues General License 135 for transactions in Russian-origin diesel through 7 April 2027.
Index snapshot
79 out of 100 · critical
World FTI · 24h: +0 · data coverage: 93% · 2026-10-14T01:58:14Z
Middle East
91
critical
East Asia
85
critical
South Asia
83
critical
North America
78
critical
Europe
78
critical
Russia / CIS
63
crisis
Africa
32
tense
Latin America
insufficient data
Events in this issue
confirmedNorth America ·
US Treasury issues General License 135 for transactions in Russian-origin diesel through 7 April 2027
On 9 October OFAC issued General License 135, authorising the sale, delivery, discharge and import of Russian-origin diesel. It is valid until 7 April 2027. According to the US president, Moscow promised deliveries of up to 4.8 million tonnes of diesel. The licence does not authorise transactions with the accounts of the Russian Central Bank, the National Wealth Fund and the Ministry of Finance at US banks; EU and UK import sanctions remain in place.
Effect on fuel. According to Ship & Bunker, the New York wholesale diesel price fell by about 4.5% to USD 4.67/gallon on the day of the announcement.
Trump announces an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine; Ukraine has not struck Russian refineries for two days
The agreement was announced by Trump on 11 October; Zelensky said Ukraine is ready to stop strikes on refineries if Russian strikes on energy facilities cease. According to The Moscow Times and Al Jazeera, no strikes on Russian refineries were recorded after the announcement; Kyiv reports continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy, including thermal power plants and Naftogaz gas facilities.
CENTCOM says US forces struck the cargo ship Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman
CENTCOM stated that a fighter aircraft hit the stern of the Panama-flagged ship Ocean Molica (also Arika Sun) with a guided munition, disabling its propulsion. According to the command, the vessel ignored warnings and attempted to pass through the maritime blockade of Iranian ports; the crew was not harmed. The episode has no independent confirmation.
Tanker GEM NO.2 (Panama-flagged) struck by an unknown projectile off the UAE coast, fire extinguished
UKMTO reported that at about 10:00 UTC on 9 October a projectile hit the oil tanker GEM NO.2 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazirah (UAE); a fire broke out on board and was later extinguished. The condition of the crew and the extent of damage are not established; the perpetrator is unknown and no one has claimed responsibility.
Effect on fuel. According to maritime security sources, the attack widens the risk zone for shipping beyond the Strait of Hormuz; the impact on supply is not assessed.
IRGC claims it struck the LPG carrier NV Sunshine south of the Strait of Hormuz; not independently confirmed
The IRGC stated that the Vietnam-flagged LPG carrier NV Sunshine was hit and caught fire while attempting to transit by an unauthorised route. A fire in the engine room was reported. No independent outlet has confirmed the hit or the damage; one source places the incident near Ras Laffan (Qatar). No casualties were reported.
Tanker struck by several projectiles about 51 nautical miles north of Qatar, casualties reported
UKMTO reported that on 7 October at about 19:00 UTC a tanker was hit by several projectiles about 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal (Qatar). Casualties are reported; the number is not specified. The perpetrator is not established and the publications contain no official comment from Qatar.