ESTIMATE · OSINT, not official data. The index is computed by a script from open series; events do not affect the score.
This issue covers 3 events. The world Fuel Tension Index at the time of issue is 76 out of 100 (critical), −3 over 24 hours, data coverage 100%. Main event: Iran calls US reply on Hormuz plan unconvincing.
76 out of 100 · critical
World FTI · 24h: −3 · data coverage: 100% · 2026-11-05T01:59:35Z
| North America | 94 | critical |
| East Asia | 81 | critical |
| Middle East | 77 | critical |
| South Asia | 77 | critical |
| Europe | 67 | crisis |
| Africa | 60 | crisis |
| Russia / CIS | 50 | crisis |
| Latin America | 37 | tense |
On 4 November Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the US reply does not meet Iran's demands and called on Washington to respond clearly to Iran's seven conditions. Iran had earlier, on 25 September, passed a plan for reopening the strait to the US via Qatar.
Effect on fuel. Impact not assessed.
According to The Guardian of 2 November, drivers in Malawi are waiting for petrol for days: a minibus driver in Zomba reportedly waited nine days at the Meru station, and at the Petroda station in Lilongwe daily capacity fell from 30,000 to 5,000 litres. According to the National Oil Company of Malawi, the cause is a shortage of hard currency to pay for imports; banks reportedly refuse letters of credit and tankers are held up at regional ports. The escalation began in late October.
Effect on fuel. The shortage of hard currency reportedly delays tankers at regional ports and reduces petrol supplies in the country.
On 2 November, according to US officials, US forces carried out limited strikes on targets on Qeshm Island, Iran, including missile launchers. The officials described the strikes as defensive, a response to Iranian use of surface-to-air missiles against US forces, and not a resumption of large-scale combat. Iranian state media reported five explosions on the island. Casualties and damage have not been established. On 4 November President Trump confirmed a strike on Qeshm, described it as minor, and said the target was an anti-aircraft facility.
Effect on fuel. Impact not assessed.